Following the unceremonious ejection former Competition and Markets Authority Chair Marcus Bokkerink in January this year, the watchdog went into full pro-growth mode. Since then, it has effectively been seeking to shed its skin as one of the most interventionist anti-trust regulators among Western economies.

The CMA has worked hard to develop a strategic narrative which positions it as close to the Government’s growth mission, with a strategic steer that requires reporting on tough as nails KPIs to prove just what a good job it has been doing. It is also now firmly in the Treasury’s deregulatory wheelhouse, with promise of a deregulated paradise on earth prevailing as a result of a cross-sector action plan.

This is a huge turn-around. When you think back to the embarrassment in 2023 of the Microsoft/Activision Blizzard debacle, you realise just how far the regulator has come with its rhetoric. After an embarrassing reverse-ferret over the deal, which it had sought to block, it reportedly took the extraordinary step of calling in the lawyers for all of the interested parties, including those voicing external views on the transaction, to give them a bollocking for ‘over-lawyering’ the deal and making the whole process too complex and litigious.

‘Methinks they do protest too much’ was the broad view of expert anti-trust lawyers at the time. The CMA had, after all, sought to be the odd-one-out in seemingly wanting to block the deal, creating howls of anguish from Microsoft boss Brad Smith at the time. Britain stood accused.

Fast forward to 2025, and we are seeing a very changed landscape, and the most noticeable difference (leaving the CMA’s relentless PR to one side) comes in the area of merger clearance.

New readers start here. Once a deal is notified to the regulator, a period of rumination is followed by a decision whether or not to refer it to a ‘Phase One’ review, in the course of which the CMA seeks to identify any issues that the transaction throws up, which, as often as not, it seeks to resolve with the parties.

Where those issues appear more intractable, and some sort of remedy – or even prohibition – in respect of the deal is anticipated, a Phase Two review is undertaken and everyone holds their breath.

According to recent data, we are now seeing an increasing number of deals between cleared unconditionally at Phase One (up from 54% in 2020-2024 to 69% so far in 2025).

But the potentially more significant – and alarming – trend is the high volume of mergers getting waved through at ‘briefing paper’ stage. This is the moment at which the initial notification has been made to the CMA.

This number has risen from 64 in 2019/20, to 187 in 2024/25, but it is worth pointing out that the overall volume of deals in that year was crumbs compared to the years of plenty for dealmakers. So, the growth in clearance at this stage is potentially very significant.

The real eyebrow-raiser that got through at this stage with the CMA was the August 2025 announcement of the $35.9bn combo of Mars, Incorporated, a family-owned, global leader in pet care, snacking and food, and Kellanova, a leading company in global snacking, international cereal and noodles. These are both huge food enterprises with control over a very large number of grocery brands that UK consumers rely on day in day out, and which retailers here are under pressure to stock. Without them, they are in trouble.

The deal itself is in Phase Two of scrutiny by the EU’s competition regulator DG Comp, so some might ask – if it is an issue for European consumers, why not for British shoppers? Wasn’t the point of Brexit the ability to make our own rules? Seemingly not, and it feels like the CMA is waiting to take the European Commission’s cue on this one.

Should the deal go ahead, there is a risk of price-gouging, a phenomenon which the CMA has already opined on. Worse still, retailers and others in the supply chain may need to have recourse to private law competition remedies in an environment in which a new, very large company has control over a broad portfolio of must-stock brands.

Pass the popcorn. On second thoughts, can I afford it?