Déjà vu all over again – why the Europe debate will return to centre stage in 2026

2 Dec 2025

A review of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement will throw up a welter of issues and opportunities in the year ahead, writes Jon McLeod

Apoplexy levels at the Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph seem set to hit new heights in 2026 as the time comes for the EU and UK to revisit the terms of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement that governs relations between Brexit Britain and the European bloc.

While next year will not see a full renegotiation of the agreement, next year is the cue for a mandatory review of its implementation, even if, as we approach the end of 2025, it has not quite been brought into full effect.

UK Ministers have argued that this has been overtaken by events, notably warming relations and a UK-EU reset described as a new ‘Strategic Partnership’ between the parties, signed off at the May 2025 summit.

Despite this, there are areas which are scheduled to be revisited, including the wide question of trade, added to which the current arrangements on that most fraught of issues – fisheries – run out next year.

Co-operation on criminal justice and migration will also come under the microscope.

On the bright side, EU sources are indicating that there is scope for closer engagement on material issues, including energy markets, where better consumer prices and improved resilience could flow from a new deal.

Similarly, the defence and security imperative is burning hotter now than it was in 2021, with a new Security and Defence Partnership creating political space for closer geopolitical cooperation in the field, including on procurement matters. A key outcome will be the UK’s participation in the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defence financing initiative.

Finally, progress has been made on a common sanitary and phytosanitary area between the European Union and the United Kingdom in respect of Great Britain and to link the United Kingdom and the Union’s greenhouse emissions trading systems.

The question of dispute resolution between the parties over the many and varied terms of the agreement will rear its ugly head once more.

Polling on rejoining the EU – re-accession – has support at about 55% of the UK public, but this rises sharply among younger demographics. There is latent support for such a move in EU diplomatic and institutional circles, even if 2050 is seen as the earliest possible projected date.

Mindful of this, European diplomats are actively talking up the proxy free-movement schemes which will be on the table next year – Erasmus Plus and the Youth Mobility Scheme. As the majority of UK tourists come up against the reality of the EU hard border – with its fingerprinting and facial recognition – the appeal to younger people of being able to move seamlessly around the 27 member states will only grow.

There is of course a dense forest of politics surrounding all of these issues. As the range of agreements between the UK and the EU seems set to expand, the question of dispute resolution between the parties over the many and varied terms of the agreement will rear its ugly head once more.

The language around enhanced governance around the TCA and the reset has been loosely framed, and it seems likely that this will become an increasing area of focus. With the European Court of Justice a firm ‘no-no’ in British politics, one idea floated to diplomatic sources is to build on existing TCA arbitration arrangements with a new and bespoke arbitral court operating out of two centres, one in the UK and one in the EU. Manchester and Krakow have been mentioned in conversations.

One of the key decisions for the UK Government is when to host the EU-UK summit, with the review of the TCA slated for May.

Political wisdom would dictate that holding it in March – well ahead of some fraught elections to the devolved administrations and parts of local government – would be the best way of gaining some political traction for the UK Labour Government, and of sharpening the dividing lines between ‘progressive’ and ‘reactionary’ movements in British politics.

Whatever the time, stand by for acres of newsprint about the Great Brexit Betrayal.