Seemingly against some initially difficult odds, the incumbent Ursula von der Leyen has been re-elected as European Commission President. The vote had been widely expected to be close, but in the end she triumphed reasonably comfortably, receiving 401 of the 720 votes. Pivotal to her success was the late backing of the Greens, who announced their support ahead of the vote.

In cobbling together a supportive parliamentary coalition, Von der Leyen had two options: shift rightwards by courting the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the party of Giorgia Meloni); or tack to the centre by winning over the Greens. For a while it seemed she was trying to do both, but it became clear in recent weeks that by re-committing to her climate ambitions she would secure the Greens’ support. She duly cut her losses with the ECR and focussed on a centrist coalition.

What does her victory mean for policy?

Von der Leyen’s ambitious policy platform, agreed between the three centrist parties of Von der Leyen’s European People’s Party (EPP), Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew, includes commitments on a wide-range of policy areas, with the standout ones being climate, competitiveness and defence.

Climate: Given that Von der Leyen had significantly toned down her support for the green agenda in recent months, the extent of her commitments in this area was noteworthy, even if she skilfully built in some wiggle room by placing the emphasis on longer term goals. Von der Leyen has committed to a legally binding 90% emission reduction target by 2040. She has also promised to launch a Clean Industrial Deal within 100 days of taking office, which seeks to boost European manufacturing in a way that reconciles a climate-friendly approach with the demands of the pro-business centre-right (this is likely to become a difficult contortion to maintain).

Competitiveness: (to be read as: helping European business to be competitive on the global stage, if necessary by adopting protectionist policies to support them). This has become the defining theme of Von der Leyen’s ambitions for her coming five-year term. She has committed to increased investment through a new European Competitiveness Fund in a wide range of sectors, including farming, industry, digital and various broadly-defined ‘strategic’ sectors.

Defence: Recent global events – rising US-China tensions, the Ukraine war, Gaza – have cemented (and perhaps vindicated) Von der Leyen’s view that the Commission needs to become better at acting politically and defending the EU’s interests. A key emerging part of this is defence. Von der Leyen has maintained a hawkish position on Russia from the start of its invasion of Ukraine and has pledged to support Ukraine for as long as it takes. She has highlighted Europe’s need to invest more in defence and pledged to create ‘a true European Defence Union’. There will be a new Commissioner for Defence, although following pushback from member states this role is expected to be focussed principally on facilitating coordination.

Risk of over-commitment

The central risk for Von der Leyen is that having over-promised to secure votes she has made a rod for her own back. There is very little chance she will fulfil her wide-ranging commitments, so Von der Leyen is likely to struggle to maintain her broad parliamentary coalition when the contradictions come to the fore and when binary decisions have to be made. For example, she has simultaneously committed to champion large European companies to compete in the global market while also promising to support SMEs, which stand to lose from any anti-competitive preference given to their larger counterparts. Something will have to give.

A further question hanging over Von der Leyen’s policies is how they will be funded. A small part will come from the Commission’s budget. Some will come directly from member states. Von der Leyen’s main hope, though, is that the private sector will stump up and increase investments domestically. To this end, the success of the much anticipated Capital Markets Union – now rebranded the European Savings and Investment Union – could be decisive; the hurdles, however, to bringing this into fruition are high and numerous. Should the requisite private sector funding not be forthcoming (a reasonably likely scenario), pressure will grow for the Commission to raise its own funds through issuing bonds. This, though, would be met with strong opposition from a number of member states. So there are no easy solutions.

Von der Leyen’s next steps are to appoint her College of Commissioners, a rather long-drawn-out process not likely to be concluded until December.