Starmer's inbox: in a foreign place?
12 Jun 2024
Foreign policy is often overlooked in general election campaigns, but Labour will face an unprecedented set of global challenges if it assumes power next month, write Jon McLeod and Harry Webster.
The world has become increasingly multi-polar, with countries in Africa, South America, and Asia increasingly eschewing western patronage in favour of strong relationships with the likes of China and India.
David Lammy, Labour’s Shadow Foreign Secretary, acknowledges that these countries “have a point” in their scepticism towards western intentions, and its commitment to an equitable global order. Central to his vision of foreign policy, termed ‘progressive realism’, is the need to act with a realistic understanding of the UK’s actual ability to project power. Instead of relying on nostalgia and denial about the UK’s place in the world, this approach aims to leverage a pragmatic approach to influence international events in favour of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Lammy is advocating a bottom-up approach to instilling this change. He has proposed internal reforms to the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO) to tackle its elitist image, enhance College of Diplomacy training for diplomats and ministers, and open the department to increased input from business, academia, and think tanks.
A Labour Government could also potentially lead to a soft reset in the UK’s relationship with Europe. While Labour has ruled out rejoining the Single Market, Customs Union, or any free movement agreement, they seek a new security pact with the continent. This initiative is driven by fear of Russian aggression and concerns over a potential Trump presidency, which could leave Europe more reliant on its own resources. Lammy has nevertheless signalled a pragmatic approach toward a potential Trump administration, though the presumptive Republican candidate’s continued rhetoric undermining NATO, and American democratic and legal systems would present a challenge for any left-of-centre government. The European Political Conference in July will therefore be an opportunity for Starmer to outline his vision to his European counterparts before the US election. Labour has also committed to signing a new veterinary agreement with Brussels which is predicted to boost British agrifood exports to Europe by 22%, and Ursula Von Der Leyen’s currently expected second term as commission president could ease the prospect of a deal, and securing further regulatory alignment between the UK and EU.
European cooperation cannot be assumed however, and will necessarily be multifaceted. In the fallout of the recent EU elections, the mixed political picture across the continent will present challenges and opportunities for a Labour Government. The ascendancy of the far-right in France will present difficulties at both the bilateral and supranational level. However, the worse than expected results of other right wing groups could present an opening for working with moderates and the centre-right. The consolidation of Donald Tusk’s triumph over the far-right PiS in Poland at the most recent elections has the potential to open up substantial common ground. As a significant EU member state, and an historic ally and friend to the UK which is closely aligned on security issues, an incoming Labour Government could develop a positive relationship with the Tusk administration to establish beneficial links into the Polish power base of manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
Labour’s foreign policy showcases significant ambition but lacks substantial detail. Commitments to increased defence spending and the formation of new security pacts are promising, though they remain vague and without clear timeframes. The concept of 'progressive realism' successfully communicates a departure from the liberal interventionist tendencies of the Blair years, but how this philosophy will function when ideals clash with the harsh realities of international relations remains uncertain.
Lammy has also been clear about Labour’s intention to catch up with the EU and USA in terms of climate policy that attracts investment. Labour plans to match the Inflation Reduction Act and EU Green Deal by creating a National Wealth Fund that invests in renewable energies, and implementing a ban on new North Sea oil and gas permits. In the medium term, this strategy aims to establish a ‘Green Power Alliance’, an ‘anti-OPEC’ of countries leading in renewable energy.
Labour’s bid for green leadership on the international stage also plays into Lammy’s “full audit” of the UK-China relationship, through which he plans to categorise the areas in which the UK can challenge, compete, and co-operate with China. On the one hand, Lammy has been clear that achieving success in the fight against climate change and the battle to effectively legislate guardrails around AI and other technologies will require working with China. On the other, he is a fierce critic of the UK’s paltry investment into advanced microchips, which he identifies as a potential “vulnerability to geo-economic pressures” from China. Labour’s team of shadow ministers has been deployed across their respective regional focus areas precisely to bridge this and similar challenging disconnects.
In March, Shadow Asia Minister Catherine West utilised a visit to Beijing to outline Labour’s openness to climate cooperation with China, whilst also expressing their concerns at human rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Building mutually beneficial trade relations with regimes in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia is central to the ambition of the Shadow FCDO team, even where these regimes have been considered unsavoury by western standards. In January, the ‘Labour Middle East Council’ was launched, coinciding with Labour increasingly distancing itself from Israel’s official positions on the Gaza conflict. The Party has now unequivocally pledged to recognise a Palestinian state before a two-state solution is reached, though it continues to tread a careful line on the issue and has not set a timeline.
In summary, Labour’s foreign policy showcases significant ambition but lacks substantial detail. Commitments to increased defence spending and the formation of new security pacts are promising, though they remain vague and without clear timeframes. The concept of ‘progressive realism’ successfully communicates a departure from the liberal interventionist tendencies of the Blair years, but how this philosophy will function when ideals clash with the harsh realities of international relations remains uncertain.